Some of the most important gains made in Afghanistan are slipping away

Afghan
children gesture at US soldiers as they stand guard near an
Afghan police checkpoint during a mission in Afghanistan’s
Nangarhar province, December 19, 2014.
REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

Some of the most important gains made by the Afghan government
and its partners appear to be slipping away, according to the
most recent quarterly report by the Special Inspector
General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR).

SIGAR’s October 2016 report, its 33rd report issued to the
US Congress, noted that there had been increases in poverty,
unemployment and underemployment, violence, outmigration,
internal displacement, and the education-gender gap, and that
services and private investment had fallen.

Significantly, SIGAR noted that the Afghan government’s
territorial control had decreased as well.

US forces in the Afghanistan "reported that approximately
63.4% of the country’s districts are under Afghan government
control or influence as of August 28, 2016, a decrease from the
65.6% reported as of May 28, 2016," the inspector general said in
a statement.

"Of Afghanistan’s 407 districts, 258 districts were under
government control (88 districts) or influence (170), 33
districts were under insurgent control (8) or influence (25), and
116 districts were ‘contested,’" the statement added.

The amount of Afghan territory under control of the
government cited by SIGAR is less than the amount US officials
have stated in the past.

Sgt.
William Olas Bee, a US Marine from the 24th Marine Expeditionary
Unit, has a close call after Taliban fighters open fire near
Garmsir in Helmand Province, May 2008.
REUTERS/Goran Tomasevic

"We believe the Afghans control or influence 68 to 70
percent of the population," General John Nicholson, the commander
of US and NATO forces, told a press briefing in September,
according to Reuters.

The Taliban is thought to control more of the country than at any
point since the US invasion in 2001, a few weeks after the
September 11 attacks.

According to US forces in Afghanistan, from January 1 to
August 19 this year, 5,523 Afghan National Defense and Security
Forces (ANDSF) members had been killed and 9,665 members had been
wounded.

Over that same period, "there were 101 insider
attacks in which ANDSF personnel turned on fellow ANDSF security
forces, killing 257 and wounding 125," the SIGAR report
noted.

Afghan
men carry a wounded man at a hospital after a bomb blast in
northern Mazar-i-Sharif, October 12, 2016.
Thomson Reuters

A record 5,100 civilian casualties, including 1,600 deaths,
were recorded in the first half of 2016, according
to the UN.

While a survey of ANDSF members found that while many
of them were satisfied with their care and expected that they or
their families would be taken care of should they be wounded or
killed, many of those surveyed cited fear of retaliation against
them or their family as a reason for wanting to leave the
service.

Moreover, loss of trust or confidence in the Afghan
government or army, and for the 58% of those surveyed who said
they knew or knew of soldiers who had left the force, the
perception that the ANDSF didn’t take care of its members was the
second-most cited reason. 

Since 2001, the US has spent about $110 billion on Afghanistan’s
reconstruction. Washington has allocated more than $60 billion since 2002 to train and
equip Afghan troops.

US forces in Afghanistan, cited by the SIGAR, reported one-third
of the country was under insurgent control or influence or at
risk of coming under it. AFP reported in October that fighting
between militants and Afghan and foreign forces had spread to 31 of the country’s 34 provinces.

An
Afghan Tactical Air Controller practices directing an air strike
during an exercise at a range outside Kabul, October 21,
2016.
Thomson
Reuters

Decreased security in some parts of the country also posed a risk
to the investment made in Afghanistan’s road infrastructure.

"Since 2002, USAID and DOD have spent approximately $2.8 billion
to construct and repair Afghanistan’s road infrastructure, and
perform capacity-building activities," SIGAR said in a release
for a separate report.

"An Afghan Ministry of Public Works’ (MOPW) official stated that
20 percent of the roads were destroyed and the remaining 80
percent continue to deteriorate," the inspector general added.

The US Agency for International Development, cited by SIGAR,
found that 54% of the country’s roads were poorly maintained and
"required rehabilitation beyond simple repairs." Those repair and
maintenance efforts had been hamstrung by lack of funding, weak capacity,
corruption, and insecurity.

The deterioration of Afghanistan’s road networks could limit the
government’s ability to access parts of the country, limit
commerce, and hinder Afghans’ freedom of movement.

The eroding security situation also threatens some of the social
gains that have been made in the county in the 15 years since US
and allied forces invaded.

Afghan
women sit with their children after arriving at a UN High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) registration center in Kabul,
September 27, 2016.
Thomson
Reuters

In parts of the country under insurgent control or influence, or
at risk of it, "the Taliban seek to punish women who work or
study outside of the home," the SIGAR report states. "A number of the women interviewed
had their lives threatened or had relatives killed by the
Taliban."

In 2006, only 8% of Afghanistan strongly or somewhat disagreed
with the statement that women should have the same education
opportunities as men, according to SIGAR. In 2015, the number
that disagreed had risen to 21%.

"Support for equal representation of men and women in
political leadership positions has declined, from a high of 51.1%
in 2008 to 43.6% in 2015," SIGAR said its statement. "The
proportion of Afghans who say that political leadership positions
should be mostly for men has increased, from 36.8% in 2006 to
42.3% in 2015."

Just over 85,000 Afghans sought asylum in the EU for
the first time in the first half of this year, SIGAR
noted.
"The number of asylum applications from April
to June was 83% higher compared to the same period in
2015."

The
Southern and Western regions of Afghanistan were home to much of
the country’s opium-poppy production in 2016.
UN Office on Drugs and Crime

The campaign against Afghanistan’s opium-poppy production
has also seen significant reversals. The
estimated area under cultivation in 2016 — 201,000 hectares, or about 496,000 acres — is
among the three highest amounts recorded since the UN began
keeping track in 1994.

The number of provinces free of opium poppies fell from 14
to 13 this year, and every region except the Southern — which
already has the most cultivation in the country — saw
increases in opium production.

Fighting and the poor security situation in much of the
country also hindered poppy-eradication efforts. Provincial
governors destroyed 877 acres of poppy this year, a 91% decline from the 9,921 acres eradicated
last year.

The average opium yield was 30% higher as well, rising from
18.3 kilograms per hectare in 2015 to 23.8 kilograms per hectare this year.