Professor who correctly predicted 32 years of elections says Trump will win — but there are caveats

Professor who correctly predicted 32 years of elections says Trump will win — but there are caveats

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Professor Allan J. Lichtman is sticking with his prediction that Donald Trump will win the US presidential election, but he’s making some big qualifications.

"By the narrowest of possible margins, the keys still point to a Trump victory," Lichtman told Washington Post.

"However, there are two major qualifications. And I’m not a hedger, and I’ve never qualified before in 30 years of predictions."

The American university professor has a 13-key system that has correctly predicted the winner of every popular vote in the US for 32 years.

The system looks at true/false statements like "There is no significant third party or independent campaign" and "The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal." If six or more statements are false, then the incumbent party loses.

Lichtman’s qualifications:

1) "It takes six keys to count the party in power out, and they have exactly six keys. And one key could still flip, as I recognized last time — the third party key, that requires Gary Johnson to get at least five percent of the popular vote. He could slip below that, which would shift the prediction."

2) "Donald Trump … is broadly regarded as a history-shattering, precedent-making, dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history …. I do think this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything, including, perhaps, reset the keys to the White House."

Check out further discussion and the 13 keys at Washington Post.

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October 30, 2016 at 02:45AM